Audio-based depression detection models have demonstrated promising performance but often suffer from gender bias due to imbalanced training data. Epidemiological statistics show a higher prevalence of depression in females, leading models to learn spurious correlations between gender and depression. Consequently, models tend to over-diagnose female patients while underperforming on male patients, raising significant fairness concerns. To address this, we propose a novel Counterfactual Debiasing Framework grounded in causal inference. We construct a causal graph to model the decision-making process and identify gender bias as the direct causal effect of gender on the prediction. During inference, we employ counterfactual inference to estimate and subtract this direct effect, ensuring the model relies primarily on authentic acoustic pathological features. Extensive experiments on the DAIC-WOZ dataset using two advanced acoustic backbones demonstrate that our framework not only significantly reduces gender bias but also improves overall detection performance compared to existing debiasing strategies.

This study presents a novel framework for counterfactual user behavior forecasting that combines structural causal models with transformer - based generative artificial intelligence. To model fictitious situations, the method creates causal graphs that map the connections between user interactions, adoption metrics, and product features. The framework generates realistic behavioral trajectories under counterfactual conditions by using generative models that are conditioned on causal variables. Tested on datasets from web interactions, mobile applications, and e - commerce, the methodology outperforms conventional forecasting and uplift modeling techniques. Product teams can effectively simulate and assess possible interventions prior to deployment thanks to the framework's improved interpretability through causal path visualization. With important ramifications f or developing product strategies and improving A/B testing, this study uses generative modeling techniques to bridge the gap between predictive analytics and causal inference.

LLM-based financial agents have attracted widespread excitement for their ability to trade like human experts. However, most systems exhibit a "profit mirage": dazzling back-tested returns evaporate once the model's knowledge window ends, because of the inherent information leakage in LLMs. In this paper, we systematically quantify this leakage issue across four dimensions and release FinLake-Bench, a leakage-robust evaluation benchmark. Furthermore, to mitigate this issue, we introduce FactFin, a framework that applies counterfactual perturbations to compel LLM-based agents to learn causal drivers instead of memorized outcomes. FactFin integrates four core components: Strategy Code Generator, Retrieval-Augmented Generation, Monte Carlo Tree Search, and Counterfactual Simulator. Extensive experiments show that our method surpasses all baselines in out-of-sample generalization, delivering superior risk-adjusted performance.

Counterfactual Explanations (CEs) are a powerful technique used to explain Machine Learning models by showing how the input to a model should be minimally changed for the model to produce a different output. Similar proposals have been made in the context of Automated Planning, where CEs have been characterised in terms of minimal modifications to an existing plan that would result in the satisfaction of a different goal. While such explanations may help diagnose faults and reason about the characteristics of a plan, they fail to capture higher-level properties of the problem being solved. To address this limitation, we propose a novel explanation paradigm that is based on counterfactual scenarios. In particular, given a planning problem $P$ and an \ltlf formula $ψ$ defining desired properties of a plan, counterfactual scenarios identify minimal modifications to $P$ such that it admits plans that comply with $ψ$. In this paper, we present two qualitative instantiations of counterfactual scenarios based on an explicit quantification over plans that must satisfy $ψ$. We then characterise the computational complexity of generating such counterfactual scenarios when different types of changes are allowed on $P$. We show that producing counterfactual scenarios is often only as expensive as computing a plan for $P$, thus demonstrating the practical viability of our proposal and ultimately providing a framework to construct practical algorithms in this area.

Ultimate is a sport where points are scored by passing a disc and catching it in the opposing team's end zone. In Ultimate, the player holding the disc cannot move, making field dynamics primarily driven by other players' movements. However, current literature in team sports has ignored quantitative evaluations of when players initiate such unlabeled movements in game situations. In this paper, we propose a quantitative evaluation method for movement initiation timing in Ultimate Frisbee. First, game footage was recorded using a drone camera, and players' positional data was obtained, which will be published as UltimateTrack dataset. Next, players' movement initiations were detected, and temporal counterfactual scenarios were generated by shifting the timing of movements using rule-based approaches. These scenarios were analyzed using a space evaluation metric based on soccer's pitch control reflecting the unique rules of Ultimate. By comparing the spatial evaluation values across scenarios, the difference between actual play and the most favorable counterfactual scenario was used to quantitatively assess the impact of movement timing. We validated our method and show that sequences in which the disc was actually thrown to the receiver received higher evaluation scores than the sequences without a throw. In practical verifications, the higher-skill group displays a broader distribution of time offsets from the model's optimal initiation point. These findings demonstrate that the proposed metric provides an objective means of assessing movement initiation timing, which has been difficult to quantify in unlabeled team sport plays.

Recent advances in vision-language models (VLMs) have greatly improved cross-modal semantic understanding, yet significant limitations remain in fine-grained discrimination and deep causal reasoning tasks. Existing VLMs often rely on superficial statistical correlations, lacking the ability to capture the underlying causal logic between visual and textual content. To address this, we propose CounterFactual Vision-Language Fine-tuning (CF-VLM), a novel framework that enhances the causal reasoning capabilities of VLMs through the targeted use of counterfactual samples. CF-VLM introduces three complementary training objectives: maintaining foundational cross-modal alignment, reinforcing the uniqueness and stability of factual scene representations against coherent counterfactuals, and sharpening the model's sensitivity to minimal but critical causal edits. Extensive experiments demonstrate that CF-VLM consistently outperforms strong baselines and state-of-the-art methods on compositional reasoning and generalization benchmarks. Furthermore, it shows promise in mitigating visual hallucinations, indicating improved factual consistency. Our CF-VLM provides a robust foundation for deploying VLMs in high-stakes, real-world scenarios requiring reliable reasoning and interpretability.

Understanding true influence in social media requires distinguishing correlation from causation--particularly when analyzing misinformation spread. While existing approaches focus on exposure metrics and network structures, they often fail to capture the causal mechanisms by which external temporal signals trigger engagement. We introduce a novel joint treatment-outcome framework that leverages existing sequential models to simultaneously adapt to both policy timing and engagement effects. Our approach adapts causal inference techniques from healthcare to estimate Average Treatment Effects (ATE) within the sequential nature of social media interactions, tackling challenges from external confounding signals. Through our experiments on real-world misinformation and disinformation datasets, we show that our models outperform existing benchmarks by 15--22% in predicting engagement across diverse counterfactual scenarios, including exposure adjustment, timing shifts, and varied intervention durations. Case studies on 492 social media users show our causal effect measure aligns strongly with the gold standard in influence estimation, the expert-based empirical influence.

Healthcare decision-making requires not only accurate predictions but also insights into how factors influence patient outcomes. While traditional Machine Learning (ML) models excel at predicting outcomes, such as identifying high risk patients, they are limited in addressing what-if questions about interventions. This study introduces the Probabilistic Causal Fusion (PCF) framework, which integrates Causal Bayesian Networks (CBNs) and Probability Trees (PTrees) to extend beyond predictions. PCF leverages causal relationships from CBNs to structure PTrees, enabling both the quantification of factor impacts and simulation of hypothetical interventions. PCF was validated on three real-world healthcare datasets i.e. MIMIC-IV, Framingham Heart Study, and Diabetes, chosen for their clinically diverse variables. It demonstrated predictive performance comparable to traditional ML models while providing additional causal reasoning capabilities. To enhance interpretability, PCF incorporates sensitivity analysis and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP). Sensitivity analysis quantifies the influence of causal parameters on outcomes such as Length of Stay (LOS), Coronary Heart Disease (CHD), and Diabetes, while SHAP highlights the importance of individual features in predictive modeling. By combining causal reasoning with predictive modeling, PCF bridges the gap between clinical intuition and data-driven insights. Its ability to uncover relationships between modifiable factors and simulate hypothetical scenarios provides clinicians with a clearer understanding of causal pathways. This approach supports more informed, evidence-based decision-making, offering a robust framework for addressing complex questions in diverse healthcare settings.

Freight truck-related crashes pose significant challenges, leading to substantial economic losses, injuries, and fatalities, with pronounced spatial disparities across different regions. This study adopts a transport geography perspective to examine spatial justice concerns by employing deep counterfactual inference models to analyze how socioeconomic disparities, road infrastructure, and environmental conditions influence the geographical distribution and severity of freight truck crashes. By integrating road network datasets, socioeconomic attributes, and crash records from the Los Angeles metropolitan area, this research provides a nuanced spatial analysis of how different communities are disproportionately impacted. The results reveal significant spatial disparities in crash severity across areas with varying population densities, income levels, and minority populations, highlighting the pivotal role of infrastructural and environmental improvements in mitigating these disparities. The findings offer insights into targeted, location-specific policy interventions, suggesting enhancements in road infrastructure, lighting, and traffic control systems, particularly in low-income and minority-concentrated areas. This research contributes to the literature on transport geography and spatial equity by providing data-driven insights into effective measures for reducing spatial injustices associated with freight truck-related crashes.

Due to the inherent lack of transparency in deep neural networks, it is challenging for deep reinforcement learning (DRL) agents to gain trust and acceptance from users, especially in safety-critical applications such as medical diagnosis and military operations. Existing methods for explaining an agent's decision either require to retrain the agent using models that support explanation generation or rely on perturbation-based techniques to reveal the significance of different input features in the decision making process. However, retraining the agent may compromise its integrity and performance, while perturbation-based methods have limited performance and lack knowledge accumulation or learning capabilities. Moreover, since each perturbation is performed independently, the joint state of the perturbed inputs may not be physically meaningful. To address these challenges, we introduce $\textbf{VisionMask}$, a standalone explanation model trained end-to-end to identify the most critical regions in the agent's visual input that can explain its actions. VisionMask is trained in a self-supervised manner without relying on human-generated labels. Importantly, its training does not alter the agent model, hence preserving the agent's performance and integrity. We evaluate VisionMask on Super Mario Bros (SMB) and three Atari games. Compared to existing methods, VisionMask achieves a 14.9% higher insertion accuracy and a 30.08% higher F1-Score in reproducing original actions from the selected visual explanations. We also present examples illustrating how VisionMask can be used for counterfactual analysis.